Progress in Neuro-Psychopharmacology and Biological Psychiatry

Objective: This study examined the prevalence of psychotic experiences (PE) and how early onset and persistence of PE contribute to risk and severity of mental disorders in adolescents at familial high-risk of schizophrenia (FHR-SZ) or bipolar disorder (FHR-BP) and adolescents from a population-based control group (PBC). Methods: This is the second follow-up of a nationwide cohort study including 522 children at FHR-SZ (N=202), FHR-BP (N=120), and PBC (N=200). Participants were assessed at ages 7, 11, and 15 using a semi-structured interview to evaluate PE and mental disorders. Results: At age 15, adolescents at FHR-SZ reported more PE than PBC over the past six months (current) and the past four years, while adolescents at FHR-BP only reported more current PE. PE reported at two or three timepoints (persistent PE) predicted any Axis I disorder in mid-adolescence, corresponding to three- (OR 2.9, 95% CI [1.5-5.7]) and 21-fold (OR 21.4, 95% CI [2.8-162.3]) increased risks, respectively. Persistent PE also predicted multimorbidity, with three- (OR 2.8, 95% CI [1.0-7.6]) and four-fold (OR 4.1, 95% CI [1.2-14.1]) increased risks, respectively. This was after adjustment for sex, early mental disorders, and familial risk. Conclusions: This study demonstrates a strong link between persistent PE and mid-adolescence mental disorders. Our findings emphasize PE as important risk markers for mental disorders during mid-adolescence and highlight the importance of monitoring children with PE before age 7 who develop persistent symptoms.

A body of research suggests that autistic individuals are less likely to drink alcohol than neurotypicals. However, emerging studies support a link between autism and alcohol use. This complex relationship is also reflected in studies that have examined the genetic overlap between the two traits. However, it is unclear whether there is a direct causal relationship between them. To explore this, we applied a combination of polygenic score and Mendelian randomisation analyses using publicly available genome-wide summary statistics and phenotypic measures of autism and alcohol consumption from UK Biobank. LD score regression analyses did not provide evidence of a genetic correlation between genetic liability for autism and drinks consumed per week (rg=-0.08; CI95%=-0.19, 0.03). Further, findings from polygenic score analyses did not support an association between genetic liability for autism and overall monthly alcohol intake. Univariable Mendelian randomisation analyses showed little evidence for a total effect of autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) or depression on overall monthly alcohol consumption. Multivariable Mendelian randomisation analyses also showed little evidence of a direct effect of autism on drinks per week when controlling for ADHD and depression. It is plausible that genetic liability for autism does not directly increase the amount of alcohol consumed but instead operates via commonly co-occurring difficulties in the autistic community. However, our findings may be due to methodological shortcomings, including weak instruments biasing effects towards to the null. Consequently, results should be interpreted with caution and further research conducted to address these issues.

Background: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a severe mental illness associated with severe clinical consequences and substantial societal burden. It's characterized by immune-inflammatory dysregulation and immune sensitization. Objective: To determine whether in vitro ketamine attenuates phytohemagglutinin (PHA)/lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced immune sensitization in patients with MDD and healthy controls (HCs). Methods: Whole blood from 18 patients with MDD and 18 HCs was stimulated with PHA/LPS and exposed to ketamine (0.3 M, 0.6 M, and 6 M) for 72 hours. Cytokines, chemokines, growth factors, and composite immune profiles, including M1/M2 macrophages, T helper (Th)1/2/17, the immune-inflammatory response system (IRS), and compensatory immunoregulatory system (CIRS), were synthesized and determined. Results: Under PHA and LPS stimulation in vitro, the MDD group exhibited markedly elevated immune profiles, including M1, M2, Th1, Th2, Th17, IRS, CIRS, chemokines, and growth factors, consistent with immune sensitization. Significant group-by-treatment interactions were observed for Th1-Th2, M2, growth factors, IL-12(p70), M1, and chemokines. Ketamine produced minimal changes in HCs but broader suppression in MDD, particularly at the highest concentration, without normalizing the sensitized immune phenotype. Among the immune markers with no notable group-by-treatment interactions, ketamine exerted diagnosis-independent effects, decreasing MIP-1{beta}, IL-1&{beta}, Th1, TNF-{beta} IRS, IFN-{gamma}, and IL-2 compared to the control condition. Conclusions: Ketamine exhibited two distinct immunoregulatory patterns: selective, disease-dependent attenuation of sensitized immune pathways and broader, diagnosis-independent suppression of the stimulated immune response, predominantly at higher concentrations. However, these effects were insufficient to normalize the immune-sensitized phenotype of MDD.

Adolescent substance use is a major public health concern due to increased risk of future physical and mental health conditions. Fronto-striatal functioning - particularly regarding inhibition and reward processing - may increase vulnerability to high-risk substance use. However, it remains unclear if these neurobiological differences precede substance use or are consequences of it. The ongoing Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study follows over 10000 youth, offering an unprecedented opportunity to longitudinally examine substance use patterns throughout development. We utilized family-clustered time-varying Cox proportional hazard models to prospectively examine main and interaction effects of right Inferior Frontal Gyrus (IFG) inhibitory control and bilateral nucleus accumbens (NAc) reward response, alongside early life adversity and peer substance use as predictors of alcohol and cannabis onset in the ABCD Study. We identified a significant crossover interaction such that left NAc activity had a slight positive association with first full alcoholic drink in the context of higher right IFG activity but a negative association in the context of lower right IFG activity. However, peer alcohol and cannabis use emerged as the strongest predictors of outcomes. Alcohol onset was also more common in females, and early life adversity was associated only with cannabis onset. Findings indicate that interactions between inhibition- and reward-related brain regions may impact risk for early substance use onset, but these effects may be modest relative to socioenvironmental factors. Additionally, divergent alcohol and cannabis findings suggest that risk profiles are substance specific. Peer-focused strategies should be considered in preventive efforts.

Background: Bipolar disorder is associated with persistent social, cognitive, and functional impairment during euthymia, yet the neural mechanisms underlying these deficits remain unclear. Alterations to self-referential processing are a candidate mechanism, but existing electrophysiological studies rely on emotionally valenced paradigms that potentially confound self-processing with emotional biases. Methods: We analysed electroencephalography from 28 patients with bipolar disorder (type I or II) and 28 age- and sex-matched healthy controls during an emotionally neutral colour judgment task with self-related (preference) and non-self-related (similarity) conditions. Late positive potentials, temporal generalisation decoding, and frequency band decoding (theta, alpha, beta) were used to characterise the temporal dynamics and oscillatory correlates of self versus non-self processing. Results: Controls showed higher overall event-related potential amplitudes and greater self versus non-self differentiation than patients (condition by group interaction, 337 to 946 ms). Broadband temporal generalisation decoding revealed extensive cross-temporal generalisation of the self versus non-self representation in controls, spanning most of the trial, but no significant generalisation in patients. Frequency analyses showed that alpha and beta carried self versus non-self information in both groups, with broader extent in controls, and that anterior theta carried this information in patients but not controls. Exploratory correlations linked decoding measures to rumination and anxiety but not to manic symptoms. Conclusions: The neural representation distinguishing self-referential from externally guided processing was both smaller in amplitude and less temporally sustained in bipolar disorder. Reduced persistence is not detectable by conventional amplitude analyses, and may bear on the self-related and social cognitive difficulties reported in this population.

Background: Substance use is common among individuals with depression. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is an effective treatment for depression, but current clinical guidelines have discouraged TMS treatment for individuals with depression and co-occurring substance use given concerns for limited efficacy. However, limited data exists on whether substance use affects response to TMS. Methods: Using electronic health record data from patients who received a standard course of TMS for major depressive disorder at an academic medical center, we investigated associations between substance use frequency and response to TMS, defined as change in Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scores. Substance use frequency was extracted for alcohol, cannabis, nicotine, stimulants, benzodiazepines, opioids, inhalants, psychedelics, and other drugs. We performed ANCOVA and multiple regression analyses to predict change in PHQ-9 score based on substance use frequency, controlling for pre-TMS PHQ-9 score, age, sex, and number of TMS sessions received. Results: We extracted data from 219 TMS courses. Alcohol was the substance used most commonly (34.2%), followed by prescription benzodiazepines (28.3%), and prescription stimulants (21.0%). Across all substance categories, substance use was not associated with change in PHQ-9 score (all p > 0.05, Cohens d=0.00 to 0.30). In multiple regression models to compare individual levels of substance use frequency (e.g., daily use vs. no use), level of substance use was not associated with change in PHQ-9 score (all p > 0.05). The range of plausible effects of substance use frequency on PHQ-9 change was generally below the minimal clinically important difference for PHQ-9, suggesting substance use was unlikely to have a meaningful clinical effect on antidepressant response to TMS. Conclusions: Low to moderate substance use does not have a clinically significant effect on antidepressant response to TMS. Low-level substance use should not exclude individuals with depression from receiving TMS.

Background: Cognitive impairment is the leading cause of disability in schizophrenia with limited treatments. A major barrier to treatment development is the absence of reproducible, mechanistically grounded neural targets. Cross-sectional studies have identified dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC)-somatomotor connectivity as a neural marker of cognitive performance on the Auditory Continuous performance task (ACPT), a measure of attention. To test the stability of this marker, we tested the relationship between DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity and ACPT performance in a longitudinal psychosis sample. Methods: Individuals with early psychosis (n=251) and matched controls (n=90) were enrolled and underwent resting-state neuroimaging and neurocognitive assessment. A subset completed longitudinal assessments over 2-4 years. We calculated DMPFC-somatomotor resting-state functional connectivity using a previously identified DMPFC region and a seed in the somatomotor cortex. We performed linear mixed effects models to predict ACPT performance based on connectivity, time, psychosis type, and their interaction. Results: In the psychosis sample, time (p=.0037) and affective psychosis diagnosis (p<.0001) predicted better ACPT performance. In a model predicting ACPT performance, we observed a significant interaction effect of DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity*psychosis subtype (p=.0079) such that DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity predicted ACPT performance only in individuals with non-affective psychosis (p=.0051). We then tested the specificity of this connectivity-cognitive performance relationship. In a model predicting DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity, only ACPT performance (p=.017), but not fluid cognition, was a significant predictor. Conclusions: DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity is longitudinally associated with cognitive performance in early psychosis. This relationship is strongest in nonaffective psychosis, suggesting a novel, reliable target for intervention for cognitive deficits in early psychosis.

This study investigated bidirectional associations between maternal sleep and depressive symptoms from preconception to postpartum, and whether infant sleep mediated or moderated these associations. We used data from the Generation R Next Study (N=2,294). Maternal sleep (specifically general sleep disturbance, latency, quality, duration, and midpoint) and depressive symptoms were prospectively assessed at five timepoints from preconception to 12-month postpartum. Sleep was self-assessed with the General Sleep Disturbance Scale and Munich Chronotype Questionnaire; depressive symptoms with the Adult Self Report depression/anxiety subscale and Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. Infant sleep (specifically night awakenings, nocturnal sleep duration, and latency) was parent-reported at 1-month postpartum using the Brief Infant Sleep Questionnaire. Bidirectional associations were examined using Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Models with Structured Residuals. The role of infant sleep was examined using mediation and moderation analyses. We found that maternal sleep and depressive symptoms were both stable over time. For sleep quality and disturbance, bidirectional associations suggested slightly stronger effects from depression to sleep (sleep quality:{beta}depression[-&gt;]sleep quality=0.11, 95%CI:0.07 - 0.14; general sleep disturbance:{beta}depression[-&gt;]sleep disturbance=0.14, 95%CI:0.10 - 0.18) than from sleep to depression ({beta}sleep quality/disturbance[-&gt;]depression=0.07 for both, 95%CIs:0.03 - 0.11). For latency, effects were comparable in both directions ({beta}depression[-&gt;]sleep latency=0.06, 95%CI:0.03 - 0.09; {beta}sleep latency[-&gt;]depression=0.05, 95%CI:0.01 - 0.09). The association between depressive symptoms and sleep latency was both mediated (9.7%) and moderated (p<0.05) by infant sleep latency. In conclusion, general maternal sleep disturbance, sleep quality, and sleep latency showed bidirectional associations with depressive symptoms from preconception/early pregnancy onwards. Infant sleep latency may represent a potential modifiable factor within this cycle.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is strongly associated with dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, systemic inflammation, and gut microbiota dysbiosis. Although selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors such as escitalopram are standard treatments, their efficacy is often constrained by partial response and gastrointestinal adverse effects. In this 12-week, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we evaluated the clinical efficacy and microecological mechanisms of adjunctive Lactiplantibacillus plantarum PS128 (PS128; 6*1010CFU/day) in MDD patients on stable escitalopram therapy. Adjunctive PS128 significantly enhanced clinical response compared to placebo, yielding substantial reductions in HAMD-17 and MADRS, alongside a higher remission rate. 16S rRNA sequencing and PICRUSt2 profiling revealed that PS128 enriched key short-chain fatty acid producers (Faecalibacterium, Coprococcus), counteracting the Klebsiella expansion seen in placebo. Functionally, PS128 up-regulated neuroprotective cofactor, B vitamins, biosynthesis and down-regulated the neurotoxic kynurenine pathway. Network analysis demonstrated that PS128 maintained a resilient, integrated microbial co-occurrence topology, whereas the placebo network showed structural segregation. This stabilized ecosystem attenuated peripheral inflammatory signaling and normalized salivary cortisol levels. Overall, adjunctive PS128 augments escitalopram efficacy by enhancing gut network stability, supporting cellular energetics, and modulating neuroendocrine activity, offering a promising multimodal strategy for MDD.

The Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ-50) is widely used to assess autistic traits, yet its Hungarian version has not been psychometrically evaluated. We assessed the reliability, factor structure, temporal stability, convergent validity, and clinical utility of the Hungarian AQ-50 and a revised translation (AQ-50-HU-R) in two samples (N1 = 1967; N2 = 423), including autistic and non-autistic participants. The AQ-50-HU-R showed high internal consistency and test-retest reliability. A bifactor model provided the best fit ({chi}2[1125] = 1650.433, p < 0.001; CFI = 0.991; TLI = 0.990; RMSEA = 0.033 [90% CI = 0.030-0.037]; SRMR = 0.083), with 71% of common variance attributable to a general autistic traits factor. The total score distinguished clinically verified autistic participants from participants reporting no ASD diagnosis (AUC = 0.906), with a cutoff of 25. Associations with ADOS scores were weak or nonsignificant. The AQ-50-HU-R is best interpreted as a reliable total-score screening measure, supporting referral for comprehensive autism assessment.

Objective To measure the accuracy of clinical coding, clinician review, and a locally deployed large language model (LLM) in identifying alcohol, drug, and self-harm involvement in emergency department (ED) attendances, and quantify prevalence. Design Two-phase diagnostic accuracy study. In a validation week, the identification strategies were assessed against a conflict-adjudicated reference standard (n=2,256); the LLM was then applied to n=105,096 annual attendances at the same site. Setting UK Type 1 Emergency Department treating patients [&ge;]16yrs. Main outcome measures Prevalence quantification compared with the reference standard; sensitivity, specificity, and balanced accuracy of each strategy; monthly identification rates and adjusted annual prevalence. Results The reference standard identified 12.1% of attendances as involving alcohol, drugs, or self-harm (coding 6.0%; clinician 10.0%, LLM 15.6%). LLM balanced accuracy matched or outperformed clinician review in all three domains (alcohol 0.942 v 0.930, p=0.635; drug 0.959 v 0.791, p<0.001; self-harm 0.982 v 0.908, p=0.004). Coding recorded 1.07 domains per identified patient against 1.32 in the reference standard. Adjusted annual prevalence corresponded to 12,890 domain involvements per year not identifiable in coded data. Subdomain classification found at least 81.6% of self-harm attendances required medical assessment for injury or overdose before psychiatric review. Conclusions Clinical coding identified fewer than half of presentations involving alcohol, drugs, and self-harm and rarely captured co-occurring domains; under-recording was present across a full year. A locally deployed LLM generated more complete structured data from existing clinical text within NHS infrastructure, at a scale which is not feasible for manual review.

Abstract: Objective: Post-traumatic epilepsy (PTE) is a common sequela of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Research indicates that individuals with PTE tend to experience greater cognitive difficulties compared to those with TBI alone. However, it is plausible that a distinct cognitive profile exists that distinguishes between TBI cases with and without PTE. We aimed to identify longitudinal changes in cognitive measures among TBI patients to better assess the changes associated with developing PTE. Setting: Outpatient. Participants: Prospective subjects who had suffered TBI within 6 months post-injury (TBI-6M, n=32), retrospective subjects with pre-existing PTE diagnoses (PTE, n=20), and healthy control subjects (HC, n=41). Design: We examined cognitive performance for TBI patients within 6 months post-injury, then again within 12 months (TBI-12M, n=26), and within 18-months (TBI-18M, n=25), and compared this with cognitive performance among HC and PTE. Main Measures: Cognitive tests administered yielded 15 test components for analysis. We utilized linear mixed effects modeling to examine cohort-level differences cognitive function. Results: 11/15 tests showed a significant performance deficit in the PTE subjects compared to HC. TBI-6M was not significantly different from the PTE subjects; with time, 9/15 tests showed some degree of recovery in TBI subjects. Tests for information processing speed/working memory and executive function showed strong recovery (TBI-6M vs. TBI-18M, SDMT written: p<0.0001, SDMT oral and COWAT: p<0.001). Tests for visual attention/working memory also showed a smaller but significant recovery (TBI-18M vs. PTE, p<0.05). By contrast, tests for verbal memory [HVLT-R Delayed Recall] showed chronic impairment in TBI (TBI-18M vs HC, p<0.0001). TBI subjects generally trend towards recovery in cognitive performance post-TBI. Conclusions: Information processing speed/working memory are strong indicators for TBI recovery, while auditory learning/memory shows chronic impairment. The stagnation of recovery in cognitive domains typically characterized by robust recovery may correlate with an elevated risk of developing PTE.

Communities exposed to flooding can experience markedly different mental health outcomes, yet conventional resilience indicators capture only part of the social and contextual conditions that may explain this variation. This study develops a multilevel and predictive framework for examining community resilience and depressive symptoms following flood exposure in Indonesia. Data were drawn from 20,303 respondents aged 15 years and older nested within 312 communities in the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS-5). Depressive symptoms were assessed using the 10-item Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D-10), with Rasch Partial Credit Model calibration used to examine measurement properties. Bayesian multilevel models quantified between-community heterogeneity and assessed how far observable structural resources accounted for this variation. Community resilience was represented through two complementary constructs: structural resilience, based on observable socioeconomic and social-capital resources, and Latent Community Protective Capacity (LCPC), a model-derived proxy for residual contextual variation in depressive-symptom risk. Approximately 6 percent of variation was attributable to between-community differences, while observable structural resources explained only part of this heterogeneity. Structural resilience and LCPC were weakly correlated (r = 0.155). Moderation analyses provided no clear evidence that structural resilience altered the flood-depression association, while LCPC showed a directionally consistent but uncertain buffering pattern. Predictive models incorporating community-level information improved discrimination, with the best-performing model reaching an ROC-AUC of approximately 0.71. The findings suggest that observable resource-based indices provide an incomplete account of community-level mental health vulnerability and that residual contextual measures may provide complementary information, while requiring cautious interpretation and independent validation.

Generalization is a key cognitive process that allows humans to flexibly apply prior knowledge to guide new behaviors. Difficulties with generalization and flexibility are observed across neurodevelopmental disorders, especially autism, limiting adaptive function and quality of life. Cognitive-behavioral treatment benefits some but not all autistic individuals. As treatment requires application of learned skills to everyday life, variability in generalization ability may limit intervention success in autism. While cognitive substrates of learning and generalization are well established, their potential for explaining clinical outcomes is not known. Here, we combined a category learning task with computational modelling to distinguish two learning strategies underlying generalization -- prototype abstraction vs. exemplar memorization -- and tested whether individual differences in these learning strategies predicted real-world intervention outcomes in autistic youth. Fifty-four participants completed the category learning task at two pre-intervention timepoints, and then completed Unstuck and On Target:14-22 intervention targeting flexible problem solving, goal setting, and planning. We found that participants who consistently relied on prototype abstraction (N=26) were subsequently more likely to benefit from the intervention, showing improvement in parent- and self-reported flexibility. These findings identify prototype abstraction as a clinically relevant cognitive capacity that may help explain individual differences in intervention response and support the tailoring of interventions. More broadly, they demonstrate the value of linking basic cognitive mechanisms to clinical outcomes and may inform strategies to enhance the effectiveness of cognitive-behavioral interventions for youth with developmental disabilities.

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a heterogeneous neurodevelopmental condition defined by differences in social communication and restricted, repetitive behaviours. As diagnostic criteria have broadened, ASD is now recognised across a wider range of individuals, raising key questions about its structure: does ASD have discrete sub-types, or is it better conceptualised as a continuous, possibly multidimensional, condition? We aim to explore whether a multidimensional continuum model more accurately captures the variability within ASD. We analysed a large SPARK phenotypic dataset of medical history and diagnostic surveys (background history, SCQ, RBS-R; n=36,710 individuals). We apply and compare two traditional statistical approaches, Factor Analysis and Gaussian Mixture Models, with a modern machine learning technique, the Variational Autoencoder (VAE). VAEs reconstructed unseen test data with ~4-fold better accuracy than Factor Analysis, and ~8-fold better accuracy than Gaussian Mixture Models. We identified four stable latent factors across 100 independently trained VAEs. These four dimensions provide an individual behavioural profile that can be visualized using radar-plots, offering a compact way to compare profiles at the person level. Through further analysis, we found evidence for 3 overlapping clusters or subtypes of ASD identified within the 4D latent space. This work aims to inform new ways of modelling ASD using a VAE that will be able to discern between a continuum or a clustered output and that go beyond binary diagnosis, instead reflecting the complex range of trait profiles, with implications for personalised diagnosis and intervention.

Suicidal behavior results from complex behavioral and biological changes. Previous cross-sectional studies indicate that proinflammatory immunobiological factors are often increased in close temporal proximity to a suicide attempt. Suicidal individuals may also exhibit a biological trait vulnerability to stress and inflammation, due to persistent epigenetic modifications. We enrolled 130 individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD), 83 with suicidal behavior at intake, and followed them for 12 months with up to eight clinical assessments. Quantification of plasma inflammatory markers and metabolites was performed by high-sensitivity electrochemiluminescence and Ultra High-Performance-Liquid-Mass Spectrometry (UPLC-MS), respectively. Epigenetic changes were identified using Illumina EPIC arrays. We identified 15 genes with altered DNA-methylation associated with suicidal behavior and attempts at baseline. Childhood trauma predicted lifetime suicide attempts and was associated with altered methylation of seven genes. Increased neutrophils and lower plasma serotonin at baseline predicted future suicide attempts over the following year (neutrophil estimate = 0.42, P = 0.016; serotonin OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.39-1.13). Utilizing biomarkers from baseline and epigenetic data from the genes with highest predictive values (STBD1 ,PRDM8, and TRIM15), we achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 for suicide attempts over the year. Suicidal behavior in MDD was associated with specific epigenetic signatures. Several of the identified genes, such as MAD1L1, have been implicated in psychiatric disease, suicidal behavior and the immune response. These findings support the usefulness of epigenetic and immunometabolic blood markers for identifying suicidal individuals in clinical settings, potentially enhancing preventative efforts.

Background Alcohol-associated injury is a leading cause of emergency department (ED) utilization in the United States and a clinically important driver of preventable morbidity across the adult lifespan. Prior surveillance research has characterized how the rate and severity of alcohol-associated injury vary by patient age, but whether the seasonal timing of injury risk is equally predictable across age groups (a question directly relevant to the timing of clinical screening intensification and public health intervention) has not been formally tested. Methods We conducted a retrospective surveillance analysis of 45,876 alcohol-associated ED visits among adults aged 18 years and older, identified from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS), 2019-2025 (weighted national estimate: 2,092,319 visits), using the structured Alcohol_Involved indicator introduced into NEISS case abstraction in 2019. Patients were stratified by sex and five age groups (18-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50-64, and [&ge;]65 years). Single-harmonic cosinor (Poisson) regression was used to estimate the seasonal peak day of injury risk (acrophase) for each stratum. To assess reliability, we performed leave-one-year-out jackknife resampling (seven iterations per group), case-resampling bootstrap confidence intervals (1,000 iterations), and likelihood-ratio tests of seasonal-phase interactions. Results Peak injury timing differed significantly across age groups (X^2 [8] = 2356.2, p < .0001). Adults aged 25-64 years showed a highly reproducible early-to-mid-July peak, with jackknife estimates shifting [&le;]14 days when any single study year was excluded. Adults aged [&ge;]65 years showed significant seasonal variation annually (all p < .0001, amplitude comparable to younger groups) but a pooled peak estimate that shifted by up to 100 days across jackknife iterations. Sex-stratified analyses revealed that this instability was driven entirely by females aged [&ge;]65 years (jackknife range: 332 days, peak consistently in late October through early January) rather than males aged [&ge;]65 (jackknife range: 31 days, peak consistently in early August). Hospital admission rates increased monotonically with age from 9.0% (18-24 years) to 31.8% ([&ge;]65 years). Conclusions Alcohol-associated injury follows a reproducible, calendar-stable summer seasonal pattern in adults aged 25-64 years. Among adults [&ge;]65 years, the previously reported temporal instability is concentrated in the female subgroup, whose seasonal injury risk does not converge on a fixed calendar window. These findings suggest that fixed-calendar prevention and screening strategies are well suited to working-age adults and older men, but older women may require a year-round, individually tailored approach. Keywords: Alcohol-related injury; Emergency department; Seasonality; Age factors; Sex differences; Injury surveillance; Cosinor analysis; Older adults

We propose two new tests to detect drug effects (DE) in trials of one to very few patients followed during two periods (before and after initiation of a treatment). Both methods use longitudinal natural history data to inform the estimation of each patient's DE. The first method uses a non linear mixed effect model (NLMEM) reflecting an expected natural history with a hypothetical drug effect, to estimate the Conditional Distribution of the Drug Effect (CDDE). The second method trains a Pareto Depth Analysis (PDA) algorithm, a machine learning based approach based on outlier detection, that we implement using data simulated under the NLMEM. We evaluated the two tests with a simulation study. We used data from the PROSPAX study in Autosomal Recessive Cerebellar Ataxias (ARCAs, to derive a NLMEM for the Scale for the Assessment and Rating of Ataxia score. The CDDE method provided controlled type I error and, in some scenarios, adequate corrected power, though sensitivity analyses showed vulnerability to misspecification. The PDA method demonstrated lower statistical power except with high score precision. These results highlight different strategies for quantifying treatment effects in ultra rare, patient' specific trials. They can inform methodological design for future ARCA precision therapies.

Objective: Whether a scheduled antiseizure medication (ASM) continues on schedule across the ICU-to-floor transfer has not been characterized. We quantified ASM administration-gap frequency across this transfer and compared it with gap frequency during matched non-transfer intervals in the same patient and drug. Methods: In this retrospective MIMIC-IV (version 3.1) cohort study, we identified epilepsy and status-epilepticus admissions with an ICU stay followed by floor transfer and a scheduled ASM order active at ICU departure. A gap was defined as an interval exceeding 1.5 times the expected dosing interval between the last ICU dose and first floor dose, or no further dose before discharge, and compared with a matched non-transfer control interval in the same patient and drug (paired McNemar test). A multivariable model evaluated six prespecified clinical predictors; sociodemographic variables were summarized descriptively. Results: Among 2,469 ASM transition-by-drug observations (1,583 admissions, 1,335 patients), an administration gap occurred in 251 (10.2%; 95% CI, 8.7%-11.7%). Gap frequency across the transfer exceeded frequency during matched non-transfer control intervals in the same patient and drug: a paired rate difference of 5.8 percentage points (95% CI, 4.4-7.1; 7.5% vs 1.7%; P = 7.3 x 10^-22) before the transfer and 6.4 percentage points (95% CI, 4.9-7.9; 8.9% vs 2.5%; P = 1.9 x 10^-23) after. Gap rates were similar for intravenous-available (9.9%) and oral-only (11.4%) drugs (rate difference, 1.5 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.6 to 4.5; P = .34). None of six prespecified predictors reached significance after correction. Significance: An antiseizure medication administration gap occurred in approximately 1 of every 10 drug-transition observations at the ICU-to-floor transfer, exceeding matched non-transfer gap rates by 5.8 to 6.4 percentage points. This transfer-associated excess, rather than any single medication or patient characteristic, supports a structured medication-continuity check.

Children and adolescents with hearing loss frequently encounter reduced auditory access and delayed language development, factors that may influence the maturation of executive functions. This study examined developmental differences in planning, a core executive function, in 98 children and adolescents with hearing loss or normal hearing aged 7 to18 years using the Tower of London task. Compared to normal hearing peers, participants with hearing loss made more unnecessary moves and rule violations and initiated problem-solving more rapidly, suggesting reduced preplanning efficiency and increased impulsivity. These group differences were most pronounced in adolescents, who showed faster initiation and greater movement inefficiency than age-matched normal hearing participants. Within the hearing loss group, adolescents displayed higher accuracy and longer initiation times than children, reflecting developmental improvements despite persistent gaps relative to hearing peers. Language development age did not alter the main effects. Findings indicate that reduced early auditory and language access may contribute to differences in planning development, highlighting the need for targeted executive functions support in educational and clinical settings for youth with hearing loss.